Monday, February 25, 2013

Morning Market Analysis

Quick overview: the markets finally broke trend last week.  The initial reason for the sell-off was the Fed minutes, which indicated some Fed governors were having second thoughts about QE.  Interestingly enough, the dollar rather than treasuries caught the safety bid.

The daily chart (top chart) shows the general trend.  On Wednesday, prices broke the upward trend line that started at the beginning of the year.  Also note the volume spike over the last few trading days, the weakening MACD and declining CMF.  Prices have moved back through the 10 and 20 day EMAs, but now the previous trend line will provide resistance.  On the 60 minute chart (lower chart) we see the action in more detail.  More importantly, prices on Friday rebounded to two important Fib levels.

What's interesting is that we're not seeing a huge response rally in Treasuries.  The 10 year ETF (top chart) did break the downward trend that started at the beginning of December, but notice that overall prices are still trading in the 105.75-106.50 range with little volume increase on the move higher.  The same can be seen in the TLT (bottom chart), where prices are trading between the 116 and 117 level with little upward movement.  The last few days of price action on both charts have printed very small candles, indicating a lack of momentum.

The real safety asset has been the US dollar, which broke through resistance on Wednesday by printing a big bar on strong volume.  This was follwed by two more days of higher prices, although printing weaker bars.  Prices are currently standing at the levels established in mid-November which may provide some resistance.