Thursday, February 7, 2013

Are Growth Headwinds Abating?

From the latest Australian Central Bank's policy decision:

Global growth is forecast to be a little below average for a time, but the downside risks appear to have abated, for the moment at least. The United States has so far avoided a severe fiscal contraction and financial strains in Europe have lessened considerably over recent months. Growth in China has stabilised at a fairly robust pace. Around Asia generally, growth was dampened by the earlier slowing in China and the weakness in Europe, but again there are signs recently of stabilisation. Some commodity prices have firmed over recent months. 

From the latest policy decision from India:

Since the Reserve Bank’s last quarterly Policy Review in October 2012, headwinds holding back the global economy have begun to abate gradually, although sluggish conditions prevail. In the US, activity gathered momentum in the third quarter of 2012 but this is unlikely to have been sustained in the fourth quarter. While a political consensus to avert the ‘fiscal cliff’ has calmed financial markets, how the debt ceiling is managed will be crucial in shaping the market sentiment on the way forward. The euro area economy is threatened by continuing contraction, notwithstanding the liquidity firewall of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the EU’s commitment to act collectively to backstop the union. Overall, however, apprehensions that the sovereign debt crisis will disrupt the global financial system have ebbed.