Uh oh: industrial production down, real retail sales still below March high

- by New Deal democrat

In line with Bonddad's last post, this morning's poor industrial production report (blue)adds to the evidence that this vital sector might actually be contracting. Further, although retail sales did increase, July's number was revised down, (red)and we are still below the level of earlier this year.



Add that together with the miserable employment report (green), and it is at least possible that a recession could have started in August (which would still mean that ECRI was wrong).