Wednesday, April 27, 2011

A Quick Note on the Markets

Yesterday we saw rallies in all the major indexes. However, I wrote the following on Monday:
Any move above technically important levels should be viewed with extreme caution unless accompanied by a fundamentally altering event such as a great unemployment report, a clear policy change from Washington that creates more fiscal stimulus, or a good GDP report that surprises the markets.
While the press mentioned the consumer sentiment reading as a driver of the rally, this number is still low by historical standards:

In short, I don't see the release as a market mover. As such, I don't see the rally as sustainable.

Let me add -- I could be wrong here. But I don't think we currently have a good backdrop for a meaningful rally.