Are Durable Goods Orders Showing an Upcoming Slowdown?
This chart is bothering me. Notice that a large number of data points in the last year are concentrated in the 192,000-196,000 area. There have been some strong moves above that area, but only three times. Now let's look at a longer time series.
On the longer scale, notice that durable goods orders are still far below their peaks from the end of the last expansion. In addition, note their rate of ascent appears to have stalled, which is revealed in more detail on the following chart:
Above is a chart of durable goods orders on a scale of 100. Notice that orders have stalled in the 75-80 range for the last 10 months -- which is below previous levels.
Durable goods orders are a very volatile series. However, their current lack of movement is beginning to concern me regarding the big picture.
I'm on Linked In and Twitter (@captivelawyer). Silver Oz's Linked In name is @silver_oz. NDD is a fossil and may be reached by etching a picture in stone on the wall of a cave.
The Bonddad Economic History Project
At the beginning of 2012, I decided to start looking at the actual, statistical history of the US economy starting in 1950. The reason is simple: to find out what really happened. So, when you see title of a post that begins with a year such as 1957, followed by "employment" or "Fed policy: you know what it's for. You can also access the information by typing in BE for Bonddad econ and a year to find information on a particular year.
Here is a link to pages that contain links to all the posts on the years listed.