From Bloomberg:
The Labor Department is citing special calendar factors for an unexpected jump in initial jobless claims to 460,000 in the April 3 week vs. the prior week's 442,000 (revised 3,000 higher). The Labor Department is not only citing Easter as a distortion but also the Cesar Chavez holiday in California, and it is further warning that seasonal volatility will shake up the numbers through the next several weeks. Otherwise, according to Market News International, the department reports "nothing unusual."
Special factors give special importance to the four-week average which is at 450,250, up 2,250 from the end of March but down more than 20,000 from the beginning of March. How this month-to-month comparison tracks in the weeks ahead will shape expectations for the April employment report.
Here is a chart of the data:
The initial leg down (a) is a solid move. But we're still in a 450-490 range since the beginning of the year which I don't like.
3 comments:
Looks like the April numbers are gonna be a tough call for economists. You have supposedly seasonal factors skewing initial claims, any range of census hiring, and ADP was off last month.
The irony of today's numbers is I thought they were very good, The 52 week moving average of nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims is now 520,933. The high was made on October 31st 2009 at 576,928.When this average was at 416,000 the unemployment rate was 7.4%. While due to the structural
unemployment i think the drop is going to have to be greater so I think an average of 470,000 will yield an 8.9% unemployment rate.The
good news today was that the year over year nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims on percentage terms set a new low of minus 33.5%.
As a point of reference the non seasonally adjusted jobless claims bottomed on percentage terms in the 1982-1983 recession at minus 43.7% on October 1,1983.....
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