Tuesday, August 25, 2009
This is a very interesting chart. There are currently two key features. First, notice that the 91.5 level has offered a tremendous amount of resistance -- prices have approached that level three times in the last month of so only to be rebuffed. Secondly, notice that the EMAs are bunched together in a tight range and are tied together with prices. This tells us the market is pretty directionless right now.
From a fundamental view, this directionless makes sense. There is a tremendous amount of supply coming to market which is adding downward pricing pressure. However, there is continued talk of the market's need to sell-off a bit, which would increase Treasuries appeal because of their safe haven status. In short, the cross currents are strong right now.