Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Today's Markets

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The good news is the market moved through key resistance areas today -- prices moved through the 20 and 50 day SMAs. In addition, prices moved higher with a gap up. This is usually a sign of increased demand. Also note the volume picked-up a bit.

But, I'm with Chart Swing Trader on this:

Technically, the Nasdaq and S&P both closed above some important resistance today (although just barely for the S&P) which is good for the bulls. It would be nice however for the market to be able to hold a rally/breakout like this just once without the government (or should I say taxpayers) getting involved and sponsoring it. That's one reason I still doubt this move and don't plan on playing it. We are also definitely overbought now on some short-term indicators and the others I watch like the McClellan are getting there very quickly as well. Maybe this time will be different - maybe this will be the rally that sticks. But everytime we have had one of these rallies where we get overbought with very little leadership, they have quickly failed, and that's still what I expect to happen here.

There is no good fundamental news right now -- that is, the employment picture still stinks, people are spending less, manufacturing is cratering, housing is in a get the idea. There is no fundamental reason for the rally. That leads me to think this just isn't sustainable.

Let's also remember an important rule: the market will make an ass out of you whenever possible.