- by New Deal democrat
My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate.
While the deceleration in growth did occur - and substantially so - the leading sectors were decidedly mixed, with some - notably the unemployment and underemployment rates - actually improving.
Here’s my in depth synopsis.
Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession
These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and help us gauge how much the post-pandemic employment boom is shading towards a downturn. These were decidedly mixed:
Wages of non-managerial workers
Aggregate hours and wages:
Other significant data:
This was a very mixed report. The biggest positives were the increases in manufacturing and construction jobs. Nominal wage growth, while decelerating, continues to be strong. And both the unemployment and underemployment rates tied their multi-decade lows.
The negatives included the reasons *why* the unemployment and underemployment rates were so low: the labor force itself declined, while those who weren’t in the labor force but want a job increased. Temporary jobs and residential construction jobs continued to decline, the former sharply. And perhaps most important of all: for the second month in a row, we have had sharp downward revisions to the previous two months’ numbers. This is something that tends to happen as a recession is about to start, or has already started.
The theme remains deceleration, but no downturn yet.