Thursday, March 2, 2023

Jobless claims: the situation remains, ‘all system go’


 - by New Deal democrat

Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 last week to 190,000, while the 4 week moving average increased 1,750 to 193,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, increased 5,000 to 1,655,000. All of these remain excellent numbers:

To repeat my meme over the past year, virtually nobody is getting laid off. It’s almost impossible to have an economic downturn with that kind of evidence.

To wit, on a YoY basis, while the past one week and continuing claims are both slightly higher, the crucially important 4 week average remains lower:

Unless and until the 4 week average goes higher YoY by at least 10%, this series is not even worthy of a yellow flag. For now when it comes to employment, it remains ‘all systems go.’