Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators - all of which are close to turning negative

 - by New Deal democrat

While we await tomorrow morning’s deluge of Almost Every Economic Series Imaginable, I have posted over at Seeking Alpha a detailed look at one measure of consumer spending and two of employment which will give us extremely timely warnings as to whether a recession has started. I explain their trajectory in the past year in detail, and how close they are to actually turning negative.

I definitely expect them to turn negative before any monthly data confirms if and when a recession has begun.

As usual, clicking over and reading will help you understand the economic situation, and bring me a little change in my pocket.