Thursday, November 17, 2022

Jobless claims: evidence the jobs market is cooling slightly from white hot to red hot


 - by New Deal democrat

Initial jobless claims declined -6,000 this week to 222,000. The 4 week average rose 2,000 to 221,000. More interestingly, continuing claims one week ago rose 13,000 to 1,507,000, the highest number in over 7 months:

By historical standards, it is still true that almost nobody is getting laid off (outside of tech). But current numbers are evidence that the job market, while still red hot, is not quite as white hot as earlier this year. In fact, if jobless claims were to stay at current levels, by the end of January they will be negative YoY and up over 20% from their lows, which would turn this indicator - which has been one of the most positive all this year - negative.