- by New Deal democrat
One of the few leading indicators not flashing red for recession has been the short end of the Treasury yield curve, which has been relentlessly positive - until now.
While the 10 year minus 2 year Treasury spread has been negative for months, the 10 year minus 3 month had remained positive. But twice in the last two weeks the 3 month Treasury has yielded more than the 10 year Treasury:
The highest yielding Treasury is the 1 year maturity. Further, the 6 month Treasury is now yielding more than the 2 year. In other words, almost the entire Treasury yield curve is now inverted:
The curve remains positive from the Fed funds rate out till 1 year. That’s the only part of the curve that hasn’t inverted yet.
That leaves about the only major indicator that hasn’t rolled over yet is corporate profits, which have been more or less flat, but haven’t really turned down.