Saturday, April 2, 2022

Weekly Indicators for March 28 - April 1 at Seeking Alpha


 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

The big news of the week was the spreading yield curve inversion in the Treasury market.* Needless to say, that puts another bullet in the body of the long leading forecast - but it’s still not negative.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economic data, and my forecast both the short and long term, and I’ll get rewarded with a penny or two.

*Not to get into too much detail here, but just how negative an indicator a yield curve inversion is depends on (1) how long along the yield curve does it extend? (2) how deep is it? And (3) how long does it last.

Well, it just happened, and it’s pretty shallow for now. But it has definitely spread out along the yield curve. The entire curve from the 3 to 10 year maturity is inverted. The 2 to 10 year spread inverted yesterday. The 2 through 7 year maturities are even inverted vs. the 30 year.