- by New Deal democrat
Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession
I am still highlighting these because of their leading nature for the economy overall. These were mixed but more positive than negative:
Wages of non-managerial workers
Aggregate hours and wages:
Other significant data:
This was generally a positive report, with resumed good growth in the headline employment number and another decline in the unemployment rate. Most internals were positive, including the manufacturing, residential construction, and temporary employment sectors, with a decline in both temporary and permanent layoffs, and an increase in full time jobs.
The negatives were the surprise decline in the manufacturing workweek, and anomalous declines in both aggregate hours and payrolls. Involuntary part time employment also rose slightly. I am discounting the decline in construction jobs for weather-related reasons.
We are still about 9.5 Million jobs behind where we were one year ago just before the pandemic hit. Even if we were to continue adding jobs at this month’s rate, it would take 2 full years just to get back to that level. The good news, I think, is that with vaccinations picking up speed, the economy is set to really surge by summertime, and hopefully there will be even stronger jobs growth as that happens.