Thursday, October 1, 2020

Happy Every Economic Statistic in the World Day! 1. Jobless claims continue making glacial progress


 - by New Deal democrat

1. Jobless claims

Another week of glacial progress in initial jobless claims, at levels worse than the worst weekly levels of the Great Recession.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims fell by -40,263 to 786,942. After seasonal adjustment (which is far less important than usual at this time), claims fell by -36,000 to 837,000, another new pandemic low. The 4 week moving average also  declined by -11,750 to a new pandemic low of 867,250:

Continuing claims declined on a non-adjusted basis declined by -1,020,192 to 11,410,703. With seasonal adjustment they declined by -950,000 to 11,767,000. Both of these numbers are also new pandemic lows:

The seasonally adjusted number is now less than 1/2 of its worst level from the beginning of May, while the unadjusted number is still slightly higher than that. Both remain about 5  million higher than their worst levels during the Great Recession.

There has been only very slow downward movement in new jobless claims over the past eight weeks. As a result, the pandemic shock recession is gradually turning into something much more chronic at very depressed levels.