Friday, April 19, 2019

Sales rebound from government shutdown-induced “mini-recession;” March housing lays an egg

 - by New Deal democrat

While March retail sales rose strongly, total business sales for February - also released yesterday - which includes manufacturers’ and wholesalers’ sales in addition to retail sales, continued to languish. This adds to the evidence that there was a “mini-recession” for several months likely brought about by the lengthy government shutdown, and there has been a rebound since (including blockbuster new lows in jobless claims).

This post is  up at Seeking Alpha.

But I’ve been reluctant to conclude that the slowdown this year is off. This morning’s housing permits and starts for March were solid evidence in support of that position, showing that the recent decline in mortgage rates hasn’t filtered through to new housing construction yet. Housing may be bottoming, but it’s at near-recessionary levels.

I have a post in the queue at Seeking Alpha on that as well. Once it is posted, I’ll put up a link.

UPDATE: And, it’s already up Here.