Friday, August 17, 2018

Why don't I see any more Doomish commentary on how commercial and industrial loans are turning negative and ensuring a recession?

 - by New Deal democrat

Oh, that's probably why.

I told you soin July 2017, when I published a graph showing that commercial and industrial loans tend to lag the Senior Loan Officer Survey by about 6 quarters, and concluded:

"in the last three quarters, the Senior Loan Officers have reported a slight loosening of standards, which suggests that commercial and industrial loans will continue to flatline through about the end of the year, and improve in 2018."

Which is, of course, exactly what they did.