Friday, June 15, 2018

May retail sales come in strong

 - by New Deal democrat

Real retail sales for May came in strong, up +0.6% just in the month:

As the graph shows, this is on trend for the entirety of this expansion, and is also a new high, surpassing that of last winter.

Per capita real retail sales also made a new high, an indicator that the expansion is likely to continue at least one more year:

Finally, the YoY% growth in real retail sales has also been increasing:

Since this is a short leading indicator (3 to 6 months) of the trend in YoY% growth in employment, it suggests that the recent run of strong monthly jobs numbers should continue, averaging in about the 175,000 to 200,000 range over the next few months.

Earlier this week I wrote that real retail sales would show how well the average household is doing holding up, considering the stagnation of real wages over the last several years.  Needless to say, the answer is "fine, so far."

I hope to say much more on this at some point in the next week or two.