Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Mixed news on the US$

 - by New Deal democrat

The strength of the US$ is the biggest reason why the US economy has been slowing down.  In general, any YoY increase of 5% or more in the US$ is a big negative for the economy in the following several quarters.

At the YoY peak, the broad US$ was up over 20%.  As of the Fed's update yesterday, the broad US$ is still up 10% or more last week, and it actually rebounded a little:

The good news is, as of today, the US$ spot index against major currencies fell slightly below 5% YoY to 4.8%:

Hopefully the broadly weighted US$ will follow suit, but we'll see.  For now, there is continued pressure on US exports.