Saturday, May 31, 2014

Weekly Indicators for May 26 - 30 at

 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at

This was a week that shows why watching the high frequency data is so valuable.  We got the revised Q1 GDP report on Thursday, and since then the Doomers have been pouring out the woodwork with stories of their discoveries that it is supposedly a really big deal.

Naked Capitalism has been especially noteworthy (and not in a good way) for showcasing these Doomer-discoveries-come-latelies.  The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard came out with the news that a heretofore unknown money supply measure  called "Divisia M4" showed that the US economy was DOOOOOOMED.  A particularly incoherent rant showed up at The Automatic Earth, where it was argued (although that word conveys a basic rationality not present in the article) that the second quarter wasn't showing a rebound because -- just look at that bad January and February data!!!!  Ummm, okay. (Hint: when even the Pied Piper of Doom doesn't cite a blog anymore, that's a pretty good sign that showcasing it is conceding the argument in advance).

To the contrary, if you were reading my Weekly Indicator columns, you saw the parade of poor data in real time in  January and February, and have been watching its strong rebound since mid-March. Don't bother looking for the Doomer concessions when revised Q2 GDP data is released in three months. It won't be there.