Wednesday, October 30, 2013

European ETF In Strong Rally

For the longest time, the EU was in a recession.  However, over the last few months it appears that the region is slowly pulling out of its economic malaise.  The markets -- acting in their role of leading indicator -- anticipated this improvement as shown by the weekly IEV chart:

The IEV bottomed in late 2011 and retested its lows about 9 months later in the spring of 2012.  However, since then we've seen a strong rally as prices moved through the 200 week EMA, printing a series of higher highs and higher lows.  Now we see prices above all the EMAs and the greater distance between the shorter and longer EMAs.  Also note the increase in volume over the last few months, indicating a move by investors into this ETF.

The daily chart shows a strong rally over the last four months, as again prices are printing a series of higher highs and higher lows.  But pay particular attention to the MACD: it may be moving to give us a sell signal -- or at least a signal not to make a move into the market just yet.