Thursday, March 7, 2013

Morning Market Analysis

After falling back to the 27 level, the homebuilding ETF has rallied, again reaching the 29.5 price level.  While the underlying technicals are positive -- the MACD has given a buy signal and the CMF has turned positive -- there is a weak volume reading that's mildly concerning.  However, no bull chart s perfect.

The Canadian dollar is in the middle of a drop.  The 6 month daily chart (top chart) shows that prices are at 6 month lows.  They broke through support at the 98-99 level earlier this month, and have continued to move lower.  On the 1 year daily chart (bottom chart) notice that the next level of support occurs at the 99-99.5 level.  Notice also the declining MACD for the last 9 months.

On the daily junk bond ETF, notice that prices broke the long-term trend in February and since then the trend line support has become resistance.

Finally, consider that the IEF's monthly chart still shows the treasury market in a long-term rally.