Friday, February 22, 2013

A few notes for Friday

- by New Deal democrat

1. While it is true that yesterday's initial jobless claims report was no better than this week one year ago, the post-Sandy trend of a lower range for claims remains intact:

If we get a number over 375,000 or if we stop getting numbers under 350,000 I'll be concerned. Not until then.

2. It looks like there is a seasonal cycle in manufacturing, that strengthens in winter and peters out in summer (from Sober Look via Yves Smith):

The concern is that this year's winter peak is lower than that of the last three years, so how bad might things be getting by summer? My preferred explanation for this is the Oil Choke Collar. Add in the hike in payroll taxes, and the imminent Sequester, and it looks like Good Times! /snark

3. David Atkins a/k/a thereisnospoon at Digby notices Young-Broder-in-training:
Ezra Klein has a habit of beginning with some genuinely honest, non-conventional-wisdom arguments in his posts, then concluding with some nonsensical both-sides-do-itisms that almost invalidate the excellent points with which he began.

4. If Washington does succeed in causing a new recession this year, what are the consequences in 2014? Who pays?

A final note to our readers who have followed us since our Daily Kos days. The top-rated diary over there on any given day might have about 2500 readers. My nerdy little piece yesterday about quantifying the impact of the payroll tax hike got reposted at Seeking Alpha, and also at Business Insider under the sexed-up title The Poor Are Getting Slammed By Tax Hikes While The Rich Spend With Wild Abandon, where as of this writing it is closing in on 7000 reads. The Hitler "Downfall" parody I spotted Monday morning on YouTube got reposted, with a little help from our friend Invictus, at Big Picture and at Bill McBride's Calculated Risk, as well as a bunch of other economic blogs, within 24 hours thereafter, and got tweeted by Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider. Meanwhile original economic analysis, vs. copying-and-pasting "Krugman sez..." type articles has all but disappeared from DK.

There's simply no reason for me to go back there. I am a nerd. I have always been a nerd. I will always be a nerd. I am home.