Thursday, February 7, 2019

Recession Watch beginning Q4 2019

 - by New Deal democrat

It had to happen someday.

My comprehensive update of the long leading indicators is up at Seeking Alpha.

After almost 10 years of being relentlessly positive, enough of the long leading indicators have turned negative to warrant a “Recession Watch” beginning in the 4th quarter of this year. (And only one day after Bill McBride a/k/a Calculated Risk Pooh-poohed such things, too! But I go where the data takes me.)

A word of caution: this doesn’t mean that a near-term recession is certain, and it doesn’t mean that it is certain to begin in Q4. But it is very much in play.