- by New Deal democrat
This morning's report on July retail sales once again belies the claim that "hard data" and "soft data" are divergent..
Not only did July come in at a strong +0.6% (+0.5% ex-autos), but June was revised up as well. Given basically non-existent inflation, this means that real retail sales made two more new records for this expansion:
In fact, real retail sales look like they are right in line with a multi-year trend.
Real retail sales per capita tend to turn down well in advance of the onset of a recession, so here is real retail sales per capita:
Again, the upward trend is continuing .
Finally, although the relationship is noisy, YoY growth in retail retail sales tends to correlate with YoY growth in employment during the ensuing months:
.So this suggests that recent stronger monthly jobs reports will continue.
Doomers will once agin have to find a new place to hang their hats.