- by New Deal democrat
Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. It is the single datum that most frequently coincides with the NBER determination of the beginning and end of recessions.
Production increased 0.4% in June, but May’s result was reduced by -0.2%. The manufacturing component declined less than -0.1%, and May’s result was also reduced, by -0.3%. As a result, overall manufacturing remains 1.2% below its pre-pandemic level, and the manufacturing component is -0.2% below that level:
While this wasn’t a poor report, it was only weakly positive overall. I don’t think the NBER will feel comfortable declaring the COVID recession over until at least the manufacturing component is all the way back to February 2020 levels.
