Sunday, February 18, 2007

How Long Can This Trend Last?

This is a chart of the percent change from the preceding quarter in personal consumption expenditures.

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The last time this figure decreased was in 1992. That is 16 years ago. How long can this trend of positive growth continue? The US savings rate (income - expenditures) has been negative for the past 5 quarters.

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Household debt has increased to over 90% of GDP and 120% of disposable income. US households greatly increased debt acquisition over this expansion, as this chart of the year-over-year percent change in household debt indicates.

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Debt payments now consume the largest amount of disposable income on record.

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How much more can the US consumer purchase before he pulls in his wings?