- by New Deal democrat
As per my introduction the past several weeks, despite the government shutdown we can recreate the initial and continuing claims data, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.
Since my forecasting method relies on the YoY% changes, it is almost never an affected by seasonality. Further, by using the same seasonal adjustment for the equivalent week one year ago, we can arrive at a good estimate of what the weekly changes would be.
Tabulating the 53 jurisdications’ reports, for the week ending October 11, unadjusted initial claims totaled 210,639 vs. 225,245 in 2024, which is -6.5% less.
Last year this week the seasonal multiplier was *1.0655:
Applying it gives us an estimated seasonally adjusted number of 224,000, a decline of -4,000 from one week ago.
Similarly, adding it to the three previous weeks of data we arrive at a four week moving average of 222,000, which is -14,750, or -6.2% lower than the number of 236,750 one year ago.
As with last year, there is an important caveat about last year in that these were affected by hurricane related layoffs, particularly in Florida and North Carolina.
Using the same methodology, unadjusted continuing claims for the week ending September 27, totaled 1,654,456 vs. 1,598,184 last year, or 3.5% higher.
The seasonal adjustment for the applicable week last year was *1.16945. Applying it gives us an estimate of 1.935 million continuing claims, or -3,000 lower than one week ago.
As with one week ago, absent hurricane distortions, this continues the general neutral trend of initial and continuing claims, forecasting a weak but not contracting economy in the next several months.
To give you a graphic idea of how this data shakes out, here are initial claims (blue), the four week average (red), and continuing claims (gold) all normed to 0, compared with their readings in the past two years before the shutdown:
I will continue to estimate this data for the duration of the shutdown
