More On the Unemployment Numbers

First, consider that at the beginning of this year we were losing 600,000+ a month. Now, let's assume a gradual easing of those problems at at 50,000/month rate. That would get us to a current level of a 250,000/month loss rate which is slightly worse than where we are currently. Here is the point of this exercise: an economy that is shedding jobs at a 600,000+ rate does not turn around and start creating jobs within 6 months; it just does not happen. An economy that goes through a period of losing 600,000+ jobs/month can more or less expect to have a dead year ahead. That -- simply put -- is reality. Today's figures are on track with a slow but steady improvement in the establishment jobs market. At the pace we are going we should be printing right around 0 within 6 months.

In addition, consider these charts of the length of time people are unemployed:



The number of people unemployed for less than 5 weeks have been decreasing since the beginning of the year.


The number of people unemployed for between 5 and 14 weeks increased in today's report. But


The number of people unemployed for 15-26 weeks declined again and


The number of people unemployed for more than 27 weeks increased but at a far slower rate than previously.

In other words, of 4 different lengths of time that people are unemployed we saw improvement in three of the metrics. And one of those time frames -- the less than 5 weeks period -- has been decreasing since the beginning of the year. That means we can probably expect to see continued improvement in these numbers going forward.