The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $337.7 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 10.1 percent (±0.7%) below April 2008. Total sales for the February through April 2009 period were down 9.2 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2009 percent change was revised from -1.2 percent (±0.5%) to -1.3 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were down 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from March 2009 and 11.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 36.4 percent (±1.5%) from April 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 20.7 percent (±2.3%) from last year.
Let's look at some of the individual data points.
1.) March to April sales were down.
2.) Year to date sales are down
3.) February to March sales were revised lower.
Click on all the images for larger images.
The above chart is from the Census report. Notice that in February there was an overall increase. March and April saw a downward move BUT April's move lower was less severe.
This chart is from Econoday. Notice that we have two different areas. The first occurred at the end of last year when the month over month rate of decline was severe . However for the last three months we have seen a less severe rate of decline. In addition, the year over year chart appears to be forming a bottom.
This does not mean we are out of the woods yet. In fact, we are far from out of the woods. The consumer is still losing jobs at a rapid rate, his hours of work are decreasing, he is heavily in debt and his net worth is taking a nosedive. Simply put, this is not the time when consumers will start a new spending binge. But, there are indications the bleeding is stopping, or at least slowing down.
