Friday, May 15, 2009

Inflation Overview



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From the BLS:

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 0.3 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This rise followed a 1.2-percent decline in March and a 0.1-percent increase in February. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods moved down 0.5 percent following a 1.5-percent decrease a month earlier, and the crude goods index advanced 3.0 percent after declining 0.3 percent in March.


Here is the relevant chart:


Click for a larger image.

On a year over year basis, prices have been dropping hard. In addition, observe on this chart from the report:


The 12-month price changes in crude and intermediate goods are accelerating. But


The month to month change in crude goods is moderating, as is the month to month change in intermediate goods (if you look back to October of last year). In addition,


The 12 month percentage change in producer prices is still positive, indicating most of what we're seeing is the massive drop in commodities:



Also note it appears commodity prices have hit bottom and are currently inching higher right now.

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in April before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This index has fallen 0.7 percent over the last 12 months, due primarily to a 25.2 percent drop in energy prices. The year-over-year declines in March and April are the first since 1955.


Here's the chart from the release:



Core increased 1.9% indicating that food and energy costs aren't impacting overall inflation. These charts from the St. Louis Fed demonstrate this:



The total CPI measure has dropped and


The year over year rate is now negative. But


The core rate is moving higher and the core's year over year rate is


Also moving higher and has never been negative although -- like PPI -- it had a major drop at th end of last year.