The above chart is from the PDF news release from the BLS. Notice we can break down the graph into three zones. The first is zone 1 where we saw moderate job losses, but no more than 200,000 in a month. Then we see the massive contraction that occurred at the end of last year with escalating losses. Then there are the five months of extremenely heavy job losses from November through March of this year. Finally, we see the peak rate of contraction over the last 6 months.
Let's combine that graph with this one:
The 4-week moving average is clearly forming a top.
However....
The rate of job destruction is the worst we've seen since the last 1950s. This tells us the worst is not over. In addition,
Average weekly hours is dropping, telling us that employers are still trying to limit the amount of people they have to lay-off by first cutting hours.
Bottom line: I still think we've put in a bottom for now. However, I also think it's going to be an extremely long road to economic recovery on the jobs front. I don't see a big wave of rehiring. What I do see is the possibility of another "jobless" recovery on the horizon.
