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Above is the chart from the Census Bureau's release. But, it's not as bad as thought:
With gasoline prices plunging and auto sales on life support, U.S. retail sales dropped 1.8% in November for their fifth straight decline, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Retail sales -- which account for about a third of final demand -- were down 7.4% compared with a year earlier. In the past three months, sales have fallen 4.7% compared with the previous three months.
.....
But the extent of the decline was exaggerated by a historic drop in retail gasoline prices in November. Excluding the record 14.7% fall in sales at gas stations, retail sales fell just 0.2%.
This drop should not be surprising. The US is in a recession, consumer confidence is low and households are taking major hits to both their stock and real estate portfolios. To that end, notice this huge drop in household wealth from the just released Flow of Funds Report
There is also the possibility things aren't that bad when you take out autos and gas station sales:
However, excluding those two sectors and the weak building-materials industry, retail sales would have increased 0.5% for the month. With the economy losing half a million jobs in November, said J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. economist Michael Feroli, "the most plausible explanation for the increase...is that gasoline prices dropped a record 30% in the month, freeing up purchasing power for those lucky enough to keep their jobs."
The short version here is Christmas probably won't be as bad as people think. But that does not mean consumers are going to go all out either. In addition, my guess is that after the first of the year we're going to see big pull backs as people hunker down for the next few months to see what the new administration does and whether or not it helps.
