Friday, November 21, 2008
Forex Friday
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Notice the following on the weekly chart:
-- Prices have rebounded from a low of 72 at the beginning of July to a current high of 88. This is a rebound of 22% in 5 months.
-- Prices are above all the SMAs
-- All the SMAs are moving higher
-- The shorter SMAs are above the longer SMAs
BUT
-- The RSI is overbought and
-- The MACD is is overbought
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Notice the following on the daily chart
-- Prices are clearly in an uptrend that has lasted for 4 months
-- Prices have continually moved through previously established resistance levels
-- All the SMAs are moving higher
-- The shorter SMAs are above the longer SMAs
-- Prices are above all the SMAs
BUT:
-- Prices are consolidating in an upward sloping triangle
-- The 87-88 handle has proved difficult for prices to move through
-- The MACD is sloping downward
-- The RSI is overbought
Bottom line: the rally looks like it is petering out.
As an added bonus, notice that commodity prices started to drop when the dollar started to rally.
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Remember that commodities are priced in ... dollars.