From the Richmond Fed
Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region contracted again in January, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. Respondents reported further declines in factory shipments and new orders, although employment and order backlogs declined on pace with December. Capacity utilization moved slightly lower, while delivery times edged higher. In addition, manufacturers reported somewhat quicker growth in finished goods inventories.
This chart is not good -- it shows the Richmond Federal Reserve District had another bad month and has been contracting for the better part of 2006. On the good side, the overall index had similar performance between 2004 - 2005 without a major problem. However, seeing any index drop like this does not raise confidence.
Here are the shipments and new orders indexes. They both show a similar pattern.
We've seen mixed manufacturing news over the past month. While overall industrial production for December increased .4%, the 4th quarter showed an overall decline. The Phily Fed was up moderately, but was nothing to write home about. The Empire State Survey softened a bit. The Kansas Fed index eased as well.
All of these regional reports are pointing to a slowing of overall production in February.
