- by New Deal democrat
Total US cases: 3,773,260
Last 7 days’ average: 66,903
Total US deaths: 140,534
Last 7 days’ average: 761
I have been waiting to see if the death rate remained elevated once the 4th of July week was completely out of the 7 day average (because there was an additional “slow” day caused by the holiday, followed by 4 “compressed” weekdays rather than 5. Those last 4 days continued to affect the 7 day average for, well, another 7 days. That period is over as of this past weekend, and here is the result:
There were 2.32 deaths per million Saturday and 2.31 deaths per million yesterday, the highest (excluding the NJ data dump several weeks ago) since June 11.
Regionally, in terms of cases, the South continues to be the worst, followed by the West, with the Midwest having a significant increase as well, and the Northeast a very slight increase:
In terms of deaths, the Midwest and Northeast continue at their low levels, but only the Northeast has recently improved:
Turning to the States, in terms of cases, Florida has made an all-time high per capita, even exceeding NY’s old record, with Arizona, Louisiana, and Alabama close behind:
In terms of deaths, however, even Arizona, at 10 per million on average for the last 7 days is nowhere near the levels of NY, NJ, and several other States early in the pandemic:
This is most likely demographics at work. Remember that 1/3 to 1/2 of all deaths in the first several months were at nursing homes and other assisted living centers, full of elderly people in poor health, together 24/7 with recirculated air. The pandemic went through them like dry tinder. More recently it has been younger people, with lower death rates, at bars, restaurants, gyms, and private parties who have been spreading the disease.
But the bottom line is that the evidence is now overwhelming that the increased infections that began at Memorial Day weekend have finally flowed through into deaths since the beginning of July.
