Initial unemployment claims remained at an elevated level for over a year after the recession ended. In addition,
The unemployment rate remained increased after the recession ended.
Let's take a look at the overall GDP picture:
The recession was actually very mild. There were only two quarters of negative growth -- the first quarter of 2001 where growth shrank 1.3% and the third quarter of 2001 when growth shrank 1.1%. However, notice that two of the quarters preceding the recession printed low GDP growt rates of 1.1% and .3%. A third quarter printed a growth rate of 2.4%. Also note the very weak growth rates after the recession. The median growth rate for the five quarters after the recession ended was 2.00% -- a subpar rate of growth. It is probably best to consider the entire three year period as an era of sub-par growth as the median GDP growth rate was 1.6%.
Let's note the causes of the recession:
1.) The stock market crash
2.) 9/11
3.) A spike in oil prices (note the spike on both sides of 2000):
Let's take a look at the various components of GDP both before and after the recession.
I've broken PCEs down into three areas. First, notice that in the four quarters before the recession, they were growing over 3%/quarter. During the recession (with the exception of 4Q2001) they were growing below 2%. Finally, notice that for the period of the recession and the five quarters after the recession, PCEs were growing but still at a subdued pace.
Gross private domestic investment was very weak for the four quarters before the recession. During the recession they numbers turned sharply negative, largely as a result of a large decrease in business investment. Investments increased for the two quarters after the recession ended, but then turned lower, advancing very little.
Exports and imports turned negative the quarter before the recession and turned sharply lower during the recession. After the recession, both increased at decent rates for the first two post-recession quarters, but thereafter started to weaken.
Government spending increased on a quarter to quarter basis during the recession, but then decreased afterwords.
