- by New Deal democrat
While this blog was on hiatus, the economic news poured in. In general all of the weekly incoming data pointed to continuing expansion, with the danger of the Oil choke collar notably present.
The ICSC reported year-over-year retail sales were up +3.1%. Since March 2009 retail sales stunk, this is an easy comparison.
ShopperTrak reported that retail sales for the month of February increased 1.2%, despite blizzards in various parts of the country. Further, on a weekly basis, sales increased 2.0% YoY for the week ending March 6.
The price of gasoline rose to $2.75 a gallon, while YoY gasoline usage was up for the third week in a row. In general, gasoline prices have moved in a range between $65 and $85 a barrel since last summer. About $90 a barrel is where prices are probably sufficiently punitive so as to cause a consumer downturn.
The BLS reported initial jobless claims totaled 462,000. The 4 week moving average stands at 476,000. You can make an equally good case at this juncture for the series going up, down, or sideways. Another couple of weeks will start to sort out the trend.
Rail traffic continues to improve, with intermodal, cyclical and total traffic all up and rising compared with last year. Baseline traffic continues to rise, but is still behind last year's traffic. On a four week basis, only coal shipments are lagging.
Finally, the Daily Treasury Statement for March 11, 2010 showed $71.2B paid in withholding taxes for the first 9 workdays of March 2010 vs. $69.5B for the first 9 workdays of March last year, a gain of +2.4%. For the last 4 weeks, $144.2B has been paid in 2010, which is all of -0.8% less than the $145.3B paid in 2009.
