- by New Deal democrat
The Leading Economic Indicators are reasonably known for February. This may finally be the month that the string of positive reports will be broken. Here's the list:
The yield curve is still positive +0.35
Real M2 reversed course and turned positive, +0.15
ISM deliveries up +0.08
Durable goods' orders grew +.008
Consumer nondurables rose in January, +0.05
Stocks' 3 month performance was down slightly -0.03
Consumer sentiment faded -0.05
Jobless claims remained negative, -0.08
Building permits turned negative -0.12
Aggregate hours in manufacturing were down sharply -0.28
Bottom line: it looks like February Leading Economic Indicators will net about +0.1, the tenth positive reading in a row -- but just barely. And they could easily be negative.
Now, it is possible that the February blizzards - the first big east coast blizzards in about half a decade - impacted some of these numbers, in particular aggregate manufacturing hours and building permits. It is also possible that the perceived expiration of the $8000 home buying credit several months ago pulled some demand forward and impacted both housing permits and initial jobless claims. Still, on the heels of January's +.3 LEI, February looks to be a strong caution signal. This probably means that economic growth will extend through the second quarter, but be much more tepid than during the 9 months from July 2009 through March 2010.
