- by New Deal democrat
We’ll get important information on manufacturing and construction later this morning, but in the meantime let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims, which continued to be *very* positive.
Initial claims for the week declined -1,000 to 197,000, and the four week moving average declined -2,500 to 200,000. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims declined -11,000 to 1.701 million:
Again, these are in the vicinity of historical lows. In particular, continuing claims are not just the lowest in 3.5 years, but they are the lowest they have been since the early 1970s with the exception of 2018-19 and 2022 through early 2023.
On the YoY% basis more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were down -13.4%, the four week moving average down -14.5%, and continuing claims down -11.5%:
Note that the YoY comparisons are becoming even more positive than they have been in the last 15 months, a very positive sign for the economy.
Finally, before the September jobs report tomorrow, let’s take our last look at where the unemployment rate is likely headed over the next several months:
Both initial and continuing claims are back down in their late 2022 and early 2023 ranges. This suggests that not only is the unemployment rate likely to decline to 3.9% or 4.0%, but it might even decline into the 3.7% range in the next few months.
