- by New Deal democrat
Last week I wrote that “we’re coming up on the one year anniversary of that change of regime, so it will be interesting to see if the negative YoY comparisons continue, or if they fade away. This week’s numbers are noteworthy in that regard, because they suggest that - maybe - the pattern of increased claims into midyear is reasserting itself. We’ll find out over the course of the summer.”
This week saw both further evidence for the return of post-pandemic seasonality, as well as continued good YoY comparisons.
Let’s look at the numbers. Initial claims rose 4,000 to 229,000, the highest weekly number in 4 months. The four week moving average rose 4,250 to 219,000, the highest since the end of February. Continuing claims, with the typical one week delay, rose 24,000 to 1.795 million, still very low:
So it very much looks like the post-pandemic seasonality of high claims at midyear may have made a return. Exactly this week one year ago is when initial claims were at their peak for all of 2025, with the exception of one week in September. Over the course of the next 6 weeks they declined nearly by -30,000. If seasonality is back, this pattern will not be repeated.
On the YoY basis more important for forecasting, initial claims were down -6.9%, the four week average down -7.9%, and continuing claims down -7.8%, on par with most of the YoY comparisons over the past few months:
This continues to be a very positive signal for the economy over the next few months.
If the change of regime was a one-time thing, driven mainly by immigrant worker issues, then these good YoY comparisons will fade between now and the end of July. We’ll see.
