- by New Deal democrat
After a long data drought, there are many releases today. I’ll start with jobless claims.
Initial claims were unchanged at 229,000, while the four week moving average rose 2,250 to 230,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.881 million:
On the YoY% basis more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were up 3.2%, the four week average up 6.1%, and continuing claims up 5.1%:
These YoY numbers are in line with what we have been seeing for the past eight months. They imply a relatively weak but expanding economy.
Finally, let’s take our first look at what this might imply for the unemployment rate in the next several months:
There is no upward pressure from either initial or continuing jobless claims, implying the unemployment rate will stay in the 4.1%-4.2% range.
