- by New Deal democrat
This morning we got more hard data on manufacturing, one from March, one for this month.
Since this pulled orders forward from future months, there must inevitably be a giveback in the months ahead. But this does tell us that Q1 was not negative for manufacturing at least.
In March new durable goods orders (blue in the graph below) soared higher by 9.2% to an all-time high. This was all about front-running tariffs, because excepting motor vehicles they were unchanged (not shown). Meanwhile core capital goods orders (red, right scale) increased only 0.1%, -0.2% below their January peak:
Since this pulled orders forward from future months, there must inevitably be a giveback in the months ahead. But this does tell us that Q1 was not negative for manufacturing at least.
Meanwhile the Kansas City Fed reported on manufacturing in its district for this month declined slightly further into contractionary territory again, at -4:
Note that this is still above its average reading for the past several years.
The new orders subindex rose +1 to a still very contractionary -11.
The average for the four regional Feds reporting manufacturing so far is -13. For new orders the average is -17. Needless to say, this is consistent with a recession in the manufacturing sector.
The Kansas City Fed will update its general business conditions survey, that includes services, tomorrow.
