- by New Deal democrat
Initial claims increased 25,000 last week from their near all-time lows to 214,000. The four week moving average declined 1,500 to 202,250, only about 12,000 above its 50 year low set in 2022. Finally, with the usual one week delay, continuing claims rose 27,000 to 1.833 million:
The relative upward stickiness of continuing claims appears to be a result of laid off Silicon Valley workers having difficulty finding suitable new employment.
On the more important YoY% basis for forecasting, claims we up 10.3%, but the more important four week average was only up 0.5%. The four week average has been running very close to unchanged YoY for 1.5 months. Continuing claims were up 10.6%:
Since initial claims lead the unemployment rate, the 4 week average suggests no further weakening for the jobs market. Here’s a look at initial claims averaged monthly (blue) compared with the unemployment rate (red):
This suggests that we won’t see higher than 3.8% unemployment in the next few months, and are more likely to drift down towards 3.5%, close to its 50 year low of 3.4%
The jobs market remains positive.
