- by New Deal democrat
Initial jobless claims declined -1,000 to 191,000 last week, while the more important 4 week moving average declined 250 to 196,250. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 14,000 to 1.694 million:
All of these remain excellent numbers. In particular, the higher numbers at the left end of the graph would have been considered excellent at any previous time in the past 40 years. So the paradigm that almost nobody is getting laid off remains intact.
The YoY comparisons are against the best numbers of last year, so they look comparatively bad. Weekly claims are up 15.1% YoY and continuing claims are up 9.8%. The more important 4 week average is up 8.6%, still below the 10% threshold for even a yellow flag, and bear in mind that it is only important if it lasts a month or more at that level:
This suggests that the unemployment rate in the March payrolls report will be unchanged or close thereto, and at very least there will not be a “bad” headline jobs number.
