- by New Deal democrat
Total US infections: 5,777,710
Average last 7 days: 41,185/day
Total US deaths: 178,488
Average last 7 days: 952/day
Source: COVID Tracking Project
Today let’s look at both death infections and deaths. I’ve started to rate each State according to a system, so we’ll look at that after the overall picture.
When it comes to new infections, only the Northeast is doing well. The best that can be said for the other regions is that the rate of new infections, while awful, has at least come down in the South and West in the past several weeks:
A similar pattern is the case as to deaths. In the Midwest, the pace of deaths has not increased nearly so much as infections:
Here is my own internal rating system as to how each State is doing:
Deep Red (general alarm out-of-control fire): 200+ infections per million, 5+ deaths per million.
Red (3 alarm fire): 100-200 infections, 2-5 deaths
Orange (2 alarm fire): 60-100 infections, 1-2 deaths
Yellow (1 alarm fire):40-60 infections, 0.5-1 deaths
Blue (smoldering/1 alarm fire): 20-40 infections, 0.2-0.5 deaths
Green (embers): 0-20 infections, 0-0.2 deaths
Applying this first to new infections, first, here are all States with 100 or more infections per million:
Next, those with less than 100 infections:
Finally, those with less than 50 infections:
Applying my rubric, here is the breakdown:
Deep red/general alarm fire:
MS
ND
GA
TN
AL
Red/3 alarm fire:
IA
KS
AR
TX
OK
NV
FL
SD
HI
SC
IL
LA
CA
NC
IN
KY
PR
VA
MT
Orange/2 alarm fire
AK
RI
MD
AZ
OH
MI
DC
NM
WY
WA
Yellow/1 alarm fire
OR
DE
CO
WV
PA
MA
Blue/smoldering
CT
NJ
NY
Green/embers
ME
NH
VT
Now let’s turn to deaths per million. First, here are all States with deaths of 5 or higher per million:
Next, States with 2 - 5 deaths per million:
Next, States with 1-2 deaths per million:
Finally, States with less than 1 death per million:
Applying my rubric, here is the breakdown as to deaths:
Deep red/general alarm fire:
MS
LA
GA
TX
NV
FL
AZ
SC
Red/3 alarm fire:
AR
TN
ID
CA
AL
IA
NC
OK
MA
KY
RI
Orange/2 alarm fire:
WV
NM
ND
MT
WY
OH
NE
IL
MN
DC
AK
WI
MD
WA
SD
UT
PA
MI
OR
MO
Yellow/1 alarm fire
KS
HI
CO
NH
Blue/smoldering
NY
NJ
ME
CT
Green/embers
VT
The only State that is in the clear (green) on both metrics is Vt. In contrast, most of the Deep South remains out of control. Most of the Northeast outside from MA and PA is doing quite well. A lot of the Midwest and Mountain West, which had been doing well several months ago, are in very poor shape, although not completely out of control.
I expect the situation to remain similar, with States waxing and waning between relative control and new exponential growth as people range between complacency and panic. This is only going to change with new national leadership and/or a vaccine.
