- by New Deal democrat
This was another poor month for housing permits and starts. Here is the Census Bureau's graph:
Single family permits did improve month over month are are up +2.4% above last September's easy comparison, but are still about 3.5% below their February peak, and tied with March for the 3rd worst reading in the past 12 months.
Total permits came in at yet another 12 month low, are down -1% YoY, and down -10% from their March high. This is recession watch territory.
Housing starts were higher YoY by +3.7% against an easy comparison, but were lower than every other month since except June and July, and are -9% off their March peak.
Last month I wrote that the poor data was "enough to turn this important long leading indicator negative, as we have gone 6 months without a new high and are down over -5%." We are now one month further removed from the last new high, and the trend remains negative, with the sole silver lining that this month's reading of single family permits isn't quite down -5% from peak
I am maintaining my negative reading for these numbers. If this is confirmed by new home sales and real private residential fixed investment next week, housing as a whole will be in firm negative territory.
