Monday, July 17, 2017

Measuring underemployment as a share of the working age population


 - by New Deal democrat

I wanted to follow up on several items from this month's employment report: namely, part time for economic reasons, and those people who are not in the labor force at all, but say they want a job.

Below I show each, both as raw numbers, and as a share of the working age population, ages 16-64 -- which makes sense, because the working age population has grown by about 25% over the last 25 years:



In 1994 there were about 165 million people between ages 16 and 64. As of April of this year (the last date available), there were about 205 million.

Here is the number of people who are part time for economic reasons (blue, right scale), and as a percentage of the aged 16-64 population (red, left scale):



While last month this ticked up, the trend as continued to the positive.

Here is "not in labor force, want a job now" (blue, right scale ), and as a percentage of the aged 16-64 population (red, left scale):



The raw number made a significant post-recession low in June.  It is not yet shown in the percentage number.

When we adjust for the working age population, both of these are roughly where they were in 1996, or at the worst point after the 2001 recession, in 2002-03. Both still need improvement of about 0.4%, or 800,000 apiece, to get within what I would consider a "normal" range.