Hinderaker hasn't written much about economics lately. This is fortunate, considering he and his Powerline cohorts spent the better part of an entire year being wrong about even the most basic economic point.
But he's back, just as wrong as ever. Now he's defending the economic projections in Trump's budget:
With reasonable government policies, 3% growth is eminently obtainable. It is nowhere near what the Reagan administration achieved. Which is why the Democrats are determined to drive Trump out of office before his pro-growth policies (on repatriation, for example) can be implemented. A pro-growth administration would expose the Obama years for the economic fiasco that they were.
Ah ... no. I'll let Federal Reserve President Kaplan explain:
The net impact of this aging trend has been, and is likely to be in the future, a reduction in the rate of labor force growth. You can see from the chart (below) that, beginning in the 2000s, population growth among those 20 to 64 years old has outpaced overall labor force growth. This trend has been due to a steadily increasing percentage of the 55–64 population within the 20–64 age range as well as a slowdown in the rate at which women have been entering the workforce. Dallas Fed economists expect these trends to continue as we head toward the 2020s.
Because GDP growth is comprised of growth in the workforce plus gains in productivity, weaker expected workforce growth trends will likely have significant negative implications for potential GDP growth in the years ahead—unless we take steps to mitigate these effects.
In other words, because the US population is aging growth is slowing. That's an economic truism.
Of course, Hinderaker could care less how things actually work. The last few months have conclusively shown that he places party above country.
